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Ag Weather Forum 10/30 09:17
Big System Moving Through US Next Week Could Cause Widespread Fieldwork
Disruption
Though fieldwork has been progressing rather smoothly lately, some showers
this weekend will be followed by a big storm system that should provide
widespread precipitation and cause some headaches for those with fieldwork yet
to complete.
John Baranick
Staff Meteorologist
Producers have been enjoying a rather nice stretch of weather to catch up on
fieldwork that had been bogged down from heavy rain back in September and early
October. While corn harvest is still a few percentage points behind schedule as
per the latest NASS Crop Report through Oct. 25, soybean harvest and winter
wheat planting have caught up to the normal pace. And good weather this week
likely accelerated those efforts, especially when producers look at the weather
forecast for the next week that features a lot of rain and a big storm system.
Ahead of that storm system, showers are increasing across the middle of the
U.S. through the weekend. A plume of tropical moisture moved north out of
Mexico and into Texas on Thursday, Oct. 29. Some of that moisture has already
found a stalled front across the Iowa-Missouri border area and is producing
showers as well. The showers will continue there into the weekend while the
tropical moisture will become more diffuse as it moves north and east across
the country through the weekend. Still, some areas of moderate-to-heavy rain
will occur, sending equipment back inside while producers wait for another
stretch of dry weather. Around Texas, Iowa, and Illinois have the best chances
at that.
However, a bigger system will be moving through the country that will create
widespread moderate-to-heavy precipitation that should create more delays to
what remains of fieldwork. Though showers are developing across the Southwest
on Friday, Oct. 30, the actual system remains over the Pacific Ocean. That will
move onshore into California on Sunday, Nov. 1, quickly moving through the
Western U.S. It should move into the Plains on Monday, Nov. 2 with widespread
showers and some thunderstorms from Canada down to Mexico before traversing
east through the country for the rest of the week. Some slow movement of the
system could create three or four low-pressure centers as the system moves
through, enhancing showers in various areas of the middle of the country before
moving through the Northeast the following weekend, Nov. 7-8.
Some of the precipitation is likely to be heavy. When combined with the
weekend showers, widespread rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are forecast for
vast areas of the country. Only areas in the Pacific Northwest are forecast to
miss out on most of this precipitation, though some pockets of drier conditions
are to be expected across the country. Even so, areas of heavier-than-forecast
rain should be expected as well. Where some rain this weekend coincides with
next week's storm, amounts should be enhanced. Pockets of 2 to 4 inches of rain
will be possible in some areas because of thunderstorms, some of which may also
become severe.
The Storm Prediction Center is already focusing on an area of the Central
and Southern Plains for severe potential on Monday, with discussion about
potential severe storms in the South and Southeast for Tuesday through
Thursday. Damaging winds are the most likely form of severe weather with such a
dynamic system, but tornadoes could also be a possibility, especially on Monday.
As this system moves into the Plains on Monday, winds around the system are
forecast to increase and could be quite strong. Models are still trying to
figure out just how strong this low-pressure center will be on Monday and
Tuesday across the Plains, Midwest, and Delta, but are currently putting out
around 35 to 45 mph gusts for large areas of all three regions. It is likely
that winds will be even stronger in the Central Plains on the backside of one
of the low-pressure centers. That is still being determined but could cause
some areas of damage.
Any disruptions to fieldwork that occur over the next week are likely to be
short-lived though. The weather forecast for behind the system does include
some cooler air, but generally sunny and dry conditions. An additional system
may follow across the southern tier of the U.S. next weekend, but models are
not currently developing this system into anything strong or of much
consequence.
On the more positive side, the widespread precipitation over the next week
should improve soil moisture for winter crops and help to reduce the widespread
drought that continues to show up on the U.S. Drought Monitor across widespread
areas of the West, Plains, and Southeast. Some areas of the Delta, where storm
systems have largely been missing for the last several months, are in deep
D3-D4 drought and need a lot of rain. One storm that produces two weeks' worth
of rain will not make much of a dent. But this should be a more active pattern
through the winter that favors the southern U.S. thanks to the ongoing super El
Nino in the Pacific Ocean.
To stay up to date with weather conditions and your local forecast for free
from DTN, head over to
https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/weather/interactive-map
John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.comA
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