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DTN Midday Grain Comments 12/08 11:07
Soybeans Lower at Midday Monday; Wheat Flat-Lower; Corn Narrowly Mixed
Corn futures are narrowly mixed at midday Monday; soybean futures are 8 to
10 cents lower; wheat futures are flat to 5 cents lower.
David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
MARKET SUMMARY:
Corn futures are narrowly mixed at midday Monday; soybean futures are 8 to
10 cents lower; wheat futures are flat to 5 cents lower. The U.S. stock market
is weaker at midday with the S&P 20 points lower. The U.S. Dollar Index is 20
points higher. The interest rate products are weaker. Energy trade is weaker
with crude .90 lower and natural gas is .33 lower. Livestock trade is mostly
lower. Precious metals are weaker with gold off 30.00.
CORN:
Corn futures are narrowly mixed at midday with negative spillover from
soybeans and little other fresh news, pre-report. On the WASDE report, trade is
looking for 2.129 billion bushels (bb) in ending stocks versus 2.154 bb last
month with no yield update expected. Ethanol margins are seeing a little
pressure from unleaded fading. Weekly export inspections were strong at 1.452
million metric tons (mmt), keeping year-to-date pace at 169%. Basis will likely
remain steady to firm with good nearby demand and poor weather slowing
movement. On the March chart, support is the 20-day moving average at $4.44,
which we are just above overnight, with the Upper Bollinger Band at $4.54 as
the next round up.
SOYBEANS:
Soybean futures are 8 to 10 cents lower at midday with trade working back to
fresh lows after trying to bounce into the day session. Meal is 1.00 to 2.00
lower and oil is 40 to 50 points lower. On the report, trade is looking for 308
million bushels (mb) of carryout versus 290 mb last month. Tariff aid payments
will be announced Monday afternoon as well. South American weather has eased
short-term dryness with weekend rains. Basis gains will likely remain soft in
the short term as crush gains fade and export shipments continue to lag
overall. USDA reported a private export sale of 132,000 metric tons (mt) of
soybeans to China on Monday morning, for delivery during the 2025-26 marketing
year. Weekly export inspections rose slightly to 1.018 mmt as we remain at 55%
of last year's pace. On the January chart, resistance is the 20-day moving
average at $11.30 that we failed to hold above again Friday, with support the
$10.93 fresh low.
WHEAT:
Wheat futures are flat to 5 cents lower with spring wheat leading at midday
as we continue to chop just below the near-term resistance levels with little
other fresh news and negative spillover from row crops. On the report, trade is
looking for carryout at 889 mb versus 901 mb last month. Weather for the Plains
should warm a bit in the short term, but the crop should be solidly dormant.
MATIF wheat is firmer Monday morning. Weekly export inspections were flat at
393,341 mt with year-to-date pace holding at 120%. On the KC March chart,
resistance is the 20-day moving average at $5.34, which we tested overnight,
with the support at the lower Bollinger Band at $5.20, which we bounced from
last week.
David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com
Follow him on social platform X @davidfiala
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