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DTN Midday Livestock Comments 11/10 11:56
Cattle Rally While Hogs Dip Lower
The cattle contracts are continuing to trade higher while the lean hog
contracts are trading lower amid weaker pork demand.
ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst
GENERAL COMMENTS:
The livestock contracts are trading mixed into Tuesday's noon hour with the
cattle contracts still rallying, while the lean hog contracts are trading
lower. Still no cash cattle trade has developed. December corn is up 11 1/4
cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $4.30. The Dow Jones
Industrial Average is down 347.94 points and NASDAQ is down 402.98 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
Luckily, this far throughout the day the live cattle contracts have kept
with Monday's rally, as currently the live cattle contracts are pushing a $1 to
$2 rally into the noon hour. December live cattle are up $2.30 at $218.52,
February live cattle are up $1.65 at $221.75 and April live cattle are up $1.45
at $224.35. At this point the rally's momentum seems to be stemming from trader
support, and it's too early in the week to see what's going to become of this
week's fed cash cattle market. But with packers having been able to secure more
inventory in recent weeks, it's assumed that fed cash cattle prices will trade
steady at best this week. No bids or asking prices are listed at this time and
no trade has developed. Trade will likely be delayed until Thursday or Friday.
Tuesday's WASDE report showed mostly disappointing news for the cattle and
beef markets of 2026 and 2027. Beef production for 2026 was decreased by 40
million pounds as packers are running slower slaughter speeds in the fourth
quarter than initially assumed. Quarterly steer price projection showed a
decrease from the remaining quarter of 2026, but no changes for 2027. Steers in
the fourth quarter of 2026 are anticipated to average $220, steers in the first
quarter of 2027 are expected to average $235 (unchanged), steers in the second
quarter are expected to average $235 (unchanged) and steers in the third
quarter of 2027 are expected to average $240 (unchanged). Beef imports for 2026
increased by 89 million pounds as beef demand remains strong but the domestic
supply remains historically low. And beef exports increased by one million
pound as demand into East Asian markets remains strong.
Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $2.57 ($365.31) and select up $0.58
($354.31) with a movement of 57 loads (44.71 loads of choice, 4.95 loads of
select, zero loads of trim and 6.96 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
And again, being able to follow the live cattle market's lead, the feeder
cattle contracts are trading higher into Tuesday's noon hour. November feeders
are up $1.35 at $329.70, January feeders are up $2.10 at $326.27 and March
feeders are up $2.65 at $322.85. Currently the spot January feeder cattle
contract is trying to trade above its 100--day moving average, which will
remain a threshold to monitor through the day's close as that could be a
bullish signal if the market closes above that mark.
LEAN HOGS:
And while the cattle contracts rally, the lean hog contracts are back to
trading lower as traders aren't willing to advance the contracts when both cash
hog prices and pork cutout values are lower. December lean hogs are up $0.02 at
$55.90; February lean hogs are down $0.25 at $60.57 and April lean hogs are
down $0.30 at $66.50. The lean hog index for Nov. 9, 2026 is down $0.29 at
$59.99 and the actual index for Nov. 6, 2026 is down $1.29 at $60.28. Pork
cutouts total 204.19 loads with 186.64 loads of pork cuts and 17.55 loads of
trim. Pork cutout values: Down $0.97, $69.84. Hog prices are lower on the Daily
Direct Morning Hog Report, down $2.98 with a weighted average price of $40.12,
ranging from $35 to $45 on 5,320 head and a five--day rolling average of
$40.98.
Tuesday's WASDE report showed mostly bearish news for the pork and hog
markets of 2026 and 2027. Pork production for 2026 increased by 35 million
pounds as there's more market ready supply than initially assumed in the fourth
quarter. Quarterly hog price projections showed a decline for most upcoming
quarters are they're more front--end supply than there is demand. Hogs in the
fourth quarter of 2026 are expected to average $53 (down $2.00), hogs in the
first quarter of 2027 are expected to average $58 (down $2.00), hogs in the
second quarter of 2027 are expected to average $63 (down $2.00) and hogs in the
third quarter are expected to average $68 (unchanged). Pork exports fell by 79
million pounds as there is increasingly more global competition, and pork
imports fell by 15 million pounds as well.
ShayLe Stewart can be reached shayle.stewart@dtn.com
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